2026-06-11
lli-radar #1: The Queue Nobody Else Publishes, and a 28-Day Clock to Batch Zero
The inaugural issue of lli-radar introduces the project, takes first inventory of the documents and dockets we now watch, and starts the Batch Zero countdown — with the first PUCT approval gate 28 days away.
Why this digest exists
lli-radar is the public record of ERCOT's large-load interconnection queue, assembled from primary sources nobody else maintains.
ERCOT tracks roughly 410 GW of requested large load — about 87% of it data centers — but publishes the queue only as aggregate MW in PDF slide decks tied to TAC/LLWG meetings. Within those decks: 9,042 MW approved to energize, but only 3,883 MW observed operational — a 1.6% funnel from request to reality. There is no machine-readable time series, no consolidated regulatory feed, and ERCOT's own Large Load Portal (targeted end-2026) will be customer-facing, not public.
lli-radar fills that gap with three things: the queue time series (every LLI Queue Status deck since October 2022, extracted into one dataset), the regulatory radar (Batch Zero milestone countdown, PUCT docket feeds, LLWG/TAC material watch), and this weekly digest — what changed, in plain English, with numbers injected from the data, not generated. Everything is files in git; the repo history is the audit trail.
This is issue #1. With the repo younger than seven days and no prior digest, there is no diff baseline yet — everything below is a first inventory.
The current queue picture
From ERCOT's published slide decks: about 410 GW of requested large load, roughly 87% of it data centers. Against that, 9,042 MW are approved to energize, and 3,883 MW are observed operational — the 1.6% funnel from request to reality.
These are the headline figures we will track over time once the deck extraction pipeline is live (see the closing section).
The Batch Zero clock
Two deadlines fall within the next 30 days:
- 2026-07-09 (28 days away): The PUCT takes up ERCOT's Batch Zero protocol package (PGRR145/NPRR1325) at open meeting. The package is Board-approved and recommended effective 2026-07-11; this is the approval gate.
- 2026-07-10 (29 days away): ILLE submission deadline — study/dynamic-model data plus eligibility materials due. Missed means excluded from Batch Zero. It is also the last day for legacy LLIS approvals under the current serial process.
Further out:
- 2026-07-24 (43 days away): TSP/DSP qualification packages due — attestations, disclosures, financial-security confirmations — plus PCLR Form W Part A for projects electing the provisional pathway.
- 2026-08-07 (57 days away): ERCOT issues deficiency notifications on submitted qualification packages.
- 2026-08-31 (81 days away): Final inclusion cut — the Batch Zero study roster is fixed. Excluded projects wait for Batch 1 (potential case build June 2027).
- 2027-04-09 (302 days away): Batch Zero final report and MW allocation. Allocated MW is reserved against restudy; the commitment gate converts allocation to firm.
What we watch weekly
ERCOT documents. First inventory stands at 14 documents now watched — all 14 in the lli_hub set (data/manifest.json). Future issues report additions and changes against this baseline.
PUCT dockets. First inventory across the dockets on our radar:
- Docket 58479: 67 filings on record, spanning 2025-07-31 to 2026-03-26. Most recent includes a PUC OPDM order adopting new 16 TAC §25.205 (2026-03-26) and Vistra Corp.'s comments on PGRR145 (2026-03-20).
- Docket 58480: 59 filings, spanning 2025-07-31 to 2026-02-09. Most recent includes a PUC OPDM order adopting new 16 TAC §25.370 (2026-02-06).
- Docket 58481: 203 filings, spanning 2025-07-31 to 2026-04-20. Recent comments from Cormint Data Systems (2026-04-20) and Mission Power on the IA security posting framework (2026-04-17).
- Docket 58482: 27 filings, spanning 2025-08-01 to 2026-04-14, including CyrusOne, LP comments (2026-04-08).
- Docket 59142: 36 filings, spanning 2025-12-17 to 2026-05-26, including Data Center Coalition comments on net metering arrangements in Batch Zero (2026-05-14).
The queue time series. Honest status: data/queue_timeseries.csv is not yet present — the deck extraction is still being built. Until it lands, the queue numbers above come from the published decks and we cannot yet show week-over-week movement. We will say so plainly until the pipeline is live.
Expect future issues to report changes against these baselines: new and changed ERCOT documents, new docket filings, the Batch Zero countdown, and — once extraction ships — the queue time series itself.