ERCOT public record · forecast
Cipher Colchis
By 2028 Q2, the frozen estimate assigns an 18% chance that at least 75 MW is energized.
Prior-only estimate. It is not calibrated and does not assert that ERCOT approved the project.
- Company target
- 2028 ercot batch study process
- By 2028 Q2
- 18% 4% to 46% sensitivity range
Investor readthrough
Colchis is material to Cipher's development story, but it is not yet modelable as contracted revenue.
The site represents about 23% of Cipher's disclosed 4.4 GW development pipeline by gross MW. A signed Direct Connect Agreement supports the site claim, but it does not establish an ERCOT approval, a tenant, lease economics, construction financing, or a rent start date. Until those facts exist, the defensible treatment is pipeline optionality rather than contracted capacity.
- Pipeline share
- ~23% 1.0 GW Colchis divided by Cipher's disclosed 4.4 GW pipeline
- Cipher ownership
- 76% As of June 30, 2026; ownership does not imply 760 MW of contracted capacity
- Current treatment
- Optionality No public tenant, binding lease economics, construction financing, or confirmed ERCOT study outcome
Source: Cipher's quarter ended June 30, 2026 Form 10-Q. The 23% figure is a derived gross-MW ratio, not a valuation estimate.
What changes the investment case
Use public milestones to decide when Colchis moves from pipeline narrative to forecastable economics.
Eight-quarter distribution
Dot: point estimate. Band: wide prior sensitivity range. The range is not a calibrated confidence interval.
What moved the estimate
Only the stated target timing changes the probability curve. Public MW is evidence context, not an expected-ramp estimate.
“1 GW Fully Executed DCA with AEP”
Primary sourceSHA 256 3cae645b81f4…“1 GW Fully Executed DCA with AEP”
Primary sourceSHA 256 3cae645b81f4…“In October 2025, the Company purchased 53% of the equity in Colchis LLC ('Colchis'), a joint venture of a potential 1 GW site in Texas, the 'Colchis Site.'”
Primary sourceSHA 256 12abb8038ef0…“Colchis 2028 Target Energization (1) 1,000 MW Gross Capacity (1) … (1) Gross capacity and target energization subject to ERCOT batch study process.”
Primary sourceSHA 256 b246a5303c9e…
What the public record cannot answer
These gaps are not treated as approvals, rejections, or completed milestones.
- Batch Zero participation, Cipher's filings put Colchis "subject to ERCOT batch study process," but no public source shows whether the July 10 ILLE package was filed or accepted; whether it went in is now a fixed fact only Cipher's interconnection owner can confirm.
- Eligibility path (standard study, PCLR election, or WLPUN/BYOG), not public; the July 24 TSP package contents depend on it.
- Interconnecting-TSP role, the Direct Connect Agreement counterparty is AEP, but the interconnecting TSP responsible for the July 24 TSP-to-ERCOT qualification package is not confirmed in any public source.
- Completed submissions, no public record shows which Batch Zero submissions, if any, are already in; no submission status is asserted here.
Method and reproducibility
The historical cohort contains only 2 labeled projects, too few to fit or backtest a likelihood. The model therefore uses an explicit weak timing prior anchored to Cipher's stated 2028 target and a separate cancellation prior. The public 1,000 MW capacity is not used to infer ramped or expected energized MW; this page estimates only the threshold event. No parameter was fitted to the live watchlist. Cancellation, energized, and remaining-unenergized probabilities sum to 100% in every quarter.
- As of
- August 26, 2026
- Status
- prior only
- Model
energization-prior-v1- Input hash
12ca4dc88beb7bce7ee68759d015c11d4efd6a6186693c05b95908e71e21aca8- Code commit
50812120f117cb2b3658d8a317a05f4408a07059
Decision support, not legal, engineering, interconnection, or investment advice.